Instinct, on X

Ten Billion Dollars and Thirteen Messages to Buy a Charger

The $10B round rumor ate the timeline, VCs did napkin math on 102x paper returns, one satirist skewered the whole genre, and somebody's friend got a screenshot creepy enough to swear off it entirely. Meanwhile: award flights, booked.

What people were saying

The number was the story. @Polymarket relayed the report that a company valued at $2.25 billion weeks ago is now shopping a $10 billion round, and the replies turned into an impromptu seminar on financing reflexivity (a 4.4x markup in weeks prices the round, not the revenue, said roughly six people in roughly the same words).

@Trace_Cohen went further with confirmed early terms: Conviction at $5M on a $50M valuation, Greenoaks fast-following at $100M, both now sitting on about $512M on paper. Conviction's whole fund is around $230M, which means one check is worth 2.2 funds, which is the venture game working exactly as designed and also feeling slightly unhinged. @aaditsh noted the entity is five months old and the founder is 23. @HarryStebbings said plainly he would not invest, citing $5 to $10 per user in subsidized compute against incumbents who own their own models. @DhravyaShah simply rewrote the headline with "trillion" everywhere and credited the source as himself.

The praise

@VoyageBliss had the anecdote of the day: arrival cards for Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, a Hong Kong PAR, web check-ins, eSIMs and insurance handled, and then it noticed an unbooked onward leg and found award space to Jakarta in Garuda business for under 16K Flying Blue miles. @ccg33k said it cracked Air India award search, which is a sentence frequent flyers will understand as high praise. @carolinedclark preferred it to Muse for living inside iMessage and for flagging an unfinished doctor intake form before the appointment got cancelled. @AdamMiller shipped a whole list of wow moments, then wondered aloud whether he'd still be using it in 30 days.

The pushback

The most-liked post of the day was @neuroswish doing a deadpan impression of the genre: outsourcing a text to a friend, and typing 13 messages to do what two taps in the Amazon app would. @BarDarlingLocal posted a screenshot a friend sent him and declared he's never using it; the quote-posts split between "what the fuck" and a thoughtful argument that proactivity needs a dial. @JayaGup10 raised the awkward one: a consumer app with your inbox, cards and screen, running on a Chinese model. @jaesmail argued the closed approach loses; @vinaykesari went hunting for a self-hosted version. @mil000 called it the 2026 Clubhouse, and @rdominguezibar stacked it against Snapchat's 15 years to a $9B valuation.

Notable anecdotes

@defyneric pitched insurance for money-moving agents, on the grounds that they already buy the wrong thing sometimes. @stevehind launched tooling for the businesses whose support channels are now being flooded by other people's assistants. @ZevLapin introduced his Muse agent to his Instinct agent; two hours later they had 4,700 leads and a work contract they'd written themselves, which is either delightful or the first paragraph of something.

Interest over time

Aug 15SepOctOct 7
Qualified posts per day · 1717 since Aug 15

Updated at 12:02pm ET from 79 posts. Posts published later appear on the Posts tab.