Anthropic pre-IPO gamesmanship post. Pure speculation but sharing as curious for thoughts. Anthropic shifted from gross to net ARR accounting and stripped out both Meta and Chinese distillation from their $65 billion ARR number. Meta speculated to be over $5 billion in ARR so taking them out means they can easily weather it when Meta turns them off shortly after being public, which is widely expected. Also decreases the odds of Meta turning them off, watermelon quality dependent. All smart. Then release Fable 5.1 so OpenAI feels confident releasing Astra. Vibes here on Astra are really good btw. I think that Astra was probably better than Anthropic was expecting. Now there are whispers that Anthropic has solved Navier-Stokes, which would be super impressive. Anthropic probably releases Fable 5.2, which should be better than Astra unless something is awry, sometime before the IPO. Likely also planning on showing a significant reacceleration in ARR in September which will of course leak to the press. Grok 4.7, Meta’s Watermelon and ChatGPT 6.1 all likely coming in the next 6 weeks as well. All those labs are confident about their roadmaps in a way I have not seen in the last 18 months. And we will see about Gemini 4. Competitors get a vote in all these plans. Grok Bot feels like the best agentic harness yet for enterprise use cases and Instinct is a promising agentic harness for consumer use cases. Should see variations of both from competitors soon. Grok Bot remains transformational for my use cases. And all this is happening into a continued acceleration in overall AI demand. Wild times. As an aside, I think Krishna might turn out to be an exceptional CFO. His former Blackstone colleagues speak super highly of him. Going to be important as communicating clearly to Wall Street if they decide to shift their compute from inference to training will be difficult to digest the first time. Probably worth studying Amazon’s invest and then “check-in” margin strategy from 2010 through maybe 2016, which investors eventually understood.

Location sharing on Instinct Starting today, you can share your location with Instinct on iMessage. Instinct can recognize when you arrive somewhere, and answer questions about where you’ve been. Here are some examples of how our early alpha group uses it: - Ordering food to your current location - Finding a lunch spot a few minutes away based on what you like - Guiding you through a trip itinerary in a new city - Figuring out how to get home, including which train to catch and where to board Instinct can also act when you enter or leave an area. You can ask it to remind you to pick up your package when you get home, or have your boarding pass ready when you arrive at the airport. These location triggers let Instinct follow up when the task becomes relevant.  Your location history also gives Instinct context to answer questions like “Where did I park?”, “How long did my bike ride take?”, or “What was that nice coffee shop around here that I went to last month?” 

If you’re an existing user, you can try it today by asking Instinct to request your location. If not, we’re giving access to 1000 new users who want to try it out: t.co/C3wJXPUU3U . If you missed it, you can join our waitlist here: t.co/LUnQCwB0dq.

Been using Instinct for two weeks now and all I have to say is this is the normies equivalent of a Claude code moment. Google or Apple should throw an ungodly amount of money at this. And yes I’m aware that grok bot or Astra can do the same thing…but the ease of use for a lazy normie is wild.

new experiment Instinct is getting me a surprise gift based on everything it knows about me stay tuned to see what it is!

been a little skeptical of all the ai assistants (is it just vcs who love them?) but instinct is busy handling tax extension filings in 5 different states + federal for me and i am SOLD

I’m going to test all the ai text assistants and break down my thoughts Poke, Instinct, Pally, Caddy, OpenInstinct, personal/local Who else am I missing?

i used instinct pretty aggressively on day one. it felt magical. and then it turned scary. giving it access to my email was already scary. then it started establishing sessions across apps and websites i use, on its own. watching an ai get that much access to act as me made me appreciate granular permissions on APIs a lot more. think about it. would you give even a clone of yourself unrestricted access to tools that could cost you money & happiness? i'd feel more comfortable with a dedicated app where sessions stay on device. but even then, i'd want it to ask before logging into anything on my behalf. and honestly, whatsapp/imessage doesn't feel like the right interface for this. i want to see where it's working, what it's doing in real time, and be able to step in before it does something i wouldn't have. that's why i prefer codex for example. the form factor is built around you trying to code, lives in projects and connects to your IDE easily. i'm not completely in the dark about what it's doing. ai agents don't have to live inside the apps or interfaces we already use. familiar interfaces help with adoption. they don't solve trust or control. if something can act as me, i need more than a chat bubble telling me it's done.

Instinct is the winner! Lauren has installed it and seems happy so far. @ me with why you want it and I can share some Instinct codes. Best use case so far: Our soccer WhatsApp was blowing up with parents struggling on a complicated registration form. I sent Instinct screenshots over iMessage and asked, “Can you do this for me?" It reset my password for the soccer site, logged in, filled out the forms, and even found Sadie’s birth certificate in an old email and uploaded it.

I’ve never set my wife up with anything beyond ChatGPT. I can’t decide between if I should give her Grok Bot or Instinct.

just got back to new york! nobody knows what an ai agent is! nobody has heard of instinct! everyone thinks i am ai chief engineer officer! none of my friends can open my x shares bc they dont have x! new york! @noahrshinn pls let me handle NYC GTM

my share shift of AI agent usage from Claude to Instinct has been wild because Instinct is free. SUCH A GREAT BUSINESS WHERE DO I INVEST?

Instinct hit $2.5 BILLION one week after launching Linear hit the same valuation on the same day, with $100M ARR, 40,000 customers and 177% net revenue retention behind it Instinct is a personal agent with no app. You text it or call it, and it plugs into your email and accounts, then books the doctor, calls Comcast, cancels the subscriptions and negotiates with vendors while you sleep. $350M raised. Users who buy through it average $1,300+ a month. I ran it for two weeks and wrote the full playbook: setup order, 30+ ready-to-send texts, 7 workflows, plus invites while they last t.co/KhCQXRpio4 Would you hand an agent your logins?

I’m fairly ai-pilled for a normie agents, workflows that work 24x7 and do things / build tools I didn’t dream existed Instinct unlocked a whole new level It’s been running my personal life lately And it’s the first tool that got my wife properly impressed (not easy )

Just tried Instinct "Agents appear capable of making the total compute pie ridiculous" #UnlimitedDemand $NVDA t.co/5onAiVYLUj

More context awareness for Instinct! —> enables more pro active suggestions! Thoughtful pro-activity is @Instinct biggest superpower vs other ai agents t.co/IYGxtgMoFs

Alright I have fomo. Want to try Instinct, does anyone have an invite code they can share?

my whole tl is hyping instinct like it's agi, bruh it's just another poke, orchids or openclaw (customised) stop that bs! and yes i have used and i find it exactly same as others

Damn bro instinct is something I really like now.

I’ve been using Instinct for my work, and it’s been awesome. This type of partnership is exactly the right one to counter the instinctive (no pun intended) user mistrust when granting write privileges. Well done, Noah! t.co/xRXXA7vB1i

It took my wife a few days to realize that the daily itinerary setting emails she’s been getting from “me” are actually coming from Instinct. Once more ppl get access to the service they’ll be shocked how good it works as an AI assistant. It took hours and a Claude max subscription for me to setup OpenClaw and I never reached this level of trust in what I. Built on my own.

Can someone invite me to instinct?

instinct is how you actually make a good whatsapp ai assistant

anyone here who can give instinct invite.

The future of shopping is @link and your personal agent. Told Shadowfax I wanted a book, approved spend, and it showed up. btw - you can make your own Instinct, Poke, etc in only a few hours.

I had Instinct pay all my parking tickets My DMV registration Gives me updates on email and slack every morning. Highly recommend t.co/G8DkiLc8B6

What's interesting about Instinct is that it didn't come from a team focused on agentic commerce. They just want to build the best personal assistant and being able to buy things is a part of that. Users just care that the assistant got the job done, not protocols or standards

this instinct agent thing is wildly overhyped and tremendously overvalued yet, either altman or zuck will buy it

Instinct is for situation monitors Grok Bot is for doers

i asked Instinct why it's able to respond so much more directly vs other LLMs' Claudish the answer makes a lot of sense