I've seen instinct referred to by some overzealous VCs (no doubt with conveniently unmentioned allocations) as a "chatGPT moment". This is hyperbole, but in a certain sense not by much, because it's been a long damn time since a single afternoon of interacting with a new product updated my priors on so many important topics at once.
Probably the single biggest update I'm internalizing is that we are not far off from the first truly massive consumer agent plays. I don't know if this is necessarily the one, and I won't be shocked if this is flash in the pan, but I've been a real skeptic about the short term prospects of this technology for average-joe use cases. And I just experienced instinct handle like 5 of them over the course of 45 minutes.
This should, I think, make one more bullish OpenAI. The beauty of these instinct experiences is how A) natural B) efficient and C) shareable they are. Natural because it feels like texting a friend, efficient in the sense that the agent genuinely eliminate frictions across many online experiences (see prior tweet) and shareable mostly as a function of A and B being a recipe for viral screenshots. In other words, there is a fuckton of low hanging consumer experience fruit here that the Instinct team (go sierra OGs!!) brilliantly plucked off.
Having those instincts (lol) the first time is the hard and admirable part, but as we all know distribution is the hardest game in town, and OpenAI seems loaded up on enough former meta execs that copying these features should be easier than say, inventing AGI. The current focus is clearly not on the consumer business, but I do not see a particularly obvious reason that the Instinct experience (sans imessage) couldn't be replicated in ChatGPT. Of course the window for this resulting in a successful reception gets narrower every day, as more users develop ossified expectations around what "chat" can and can't do.
Instinct is also a massive validation of agentic frameworks as abstract goal pursuing systems beyond mere programming land. Turns out agents are truly general purpose tools. I think the much of even the tech world was not totally sold on this vision; having spent the last year working on the other clearly-functional agentic use case (customer support), I've had a bit more faith here, but the browser use and agentic purchasing experience instinct shipped is just extraordinary and frame breaking. So much clever work here, and so many small ways of rethinking how agents are built that come through. I recall watching Karpathy's talk about agents in ~2023 and thinking it sounded insane; important lesson to realize things can go from insane to completely-real-and-better-than-we-were-hoping-for in a few short years.
The much discussed raise and valuation, in light of these capabilities, is also quite interesting to reflect on. The market is clearly getting very impatient for something to happen in consumer. There are a lot of flailing theses about the future of AI that were suddenly revitalized by this product, and I suspect that this influenced the outrageous pricing on the margins as much as any market sizing pseudo-math. The X discourse feels largely like a collective "I told you so" (being largely preached to the choir)—and yes this post is effectively just that as well lol.
But I had not booked a dentist appointment in 1.5 years, which I admit is gross and lame. It's embarrasing to say but I was just being too damn lazy about it. I now have an appointment next week and it took like 3 texts. And so I think when the average normie joe has a few experiences like that, the idea of voluntarily paying for AI outside of the workspace will suddenly not seem so crazy. Exciting times ahead.